By Patrick Thibodeau
Jan. 11, 2017
By 2035, developers will have learned to automate many jobs. Investments in artificial intelligence (A.I.) and robotics will surge, displacing workers. And a more connected world will increase -- not reduce -- differences, increasing nationalism and populism, according to a new government intelligence assessment prepared just in time for President-elect Donald Trump's administration.
The "Global Trends" report, unveiled Monday, is produced every four years by the National Intelligence Council. It is released just before the inauguration of a new or returning president. The council is tasked with helping to shape U.S. strategic thinking.
This year's report, which details the challenges and threats facing the globe over the next 20 years, sees rising perils. The rapid advance of technology is a major reason why.
The study may be at its most clever in offering up some future outcomes in the form of "surprise" news stories, including:
- On Feb. 3, 2019, wire services report "China Buys Uninhabited Fijian Island to Build Military Base." The government of Fiji sells the island -- 3,150 miles southwest of Hawaii -- for $850 million.
- May 13, 2019, news media reports, "Mexico Outlaws Private Drones After Latest Assassination Attempt." This followed the fifth "drone-bomb" assassination.
- Sept. 17, 2021, the headline news is "Gig Workers Riot in London and New York" over poor pay, job uncertainty and lack of benefits.
- Feb. 11, 2032, "IMF says African Economic Growth Rate Surpasses Asia." The report cites availability of cheaper solar power panels and home batteries which "have revolutionized energy" and desalination technology that has stabilized food production.
The trends are global. Mega cities are sinking, about half of the world's aquifers are being bled dry, and in 20 years, half of the world's population will experience water shortages and in some places severe shortages, said Rod Schoonover, director of environment and natural resources, National Intelligence Council, at a webcast panel about the report.
Capabilities and basic science will also exist for individuals to develop their own, do-it-yourself weapons of mass destruction, said Suzanne Fry, director of the Strategic Futures Group at the National Intelligence Council. These terrorists will operate with the goal of "bringing armageddon to everybody," she said.
Advances in technologies are likely to change the nature of war in other ways, and will bring about increased use of cyber weapons, robotics and unmanned attack systems, the report said. In space, the deployment of anti-satellite technologies is expected to raise even more concerns.
On Earth, automation may outstrip the economy's ability to deliver new types of jobs -- something that has not been the case in the past when new technologies arrived on the scene.